Myanmar Army (105 mm) |
On
March 6 this year Myanmar military staged a large-scale operational
exercise involving a light infantry division and tanks and heavy
artillery in Meikhtila. And the Commander-In-Chief General Min Aung
Hlaing had attended and watched the war-game.
The
replicated field and the sand model used as the enemy target was
clearly the close replica of KIO headquarters at Laiza on the Chinese
border. The most significant thing about the exercise was that the whole
thing was broadcasted on the army-controlled Myawaddy TV while the
KIA/KIO and Myanmar government had been actively negotiating about a
peace treaty.
Unlike
most other ethnic insurgents KIA has so far refused the government’s
generous ceasefire offer and even during the ceasefire talks in China it
had attacked various military and civilian targets all over Kachin
State.
KIA General Gun Maw |
KIA
Commander-in-Chief General Gun Maw, the hardest hardliner among KIA top
leaders, has repeatedly and openly been admitting that they have been
forcefully recruiting one man from every household to build up their
military strength to defend against the coming major offensive by the Myanmar army.
Even
though the Myanmar president has ordered a total ceasefire Min Aung
Hlaing’s army has refused to follow the president’s orders and happily
engaging the aggressive KIA along the border with China.
KIA Child Soldier |
With
the explicit permission of China, who is gradually losing patience on
KIA steadfastly and stubbornly refusing to lie down and turn over so
that the Chinese companies and individuals can continue exploiting the
commercial opportunities abound in Myanmar, the possibility of a major
wiping-out operation against KIA’s Laiza headquarters is absolutely
certain.
And
the March-6 military exercise aiming at the exact replica of Laiza
recreated in Meikhtila and the public broadcast of the exercise seems to
be an explicit threat to KIA to be careful in boasting and frequently
releasing their victory videos on YouTube.
Especially
the videos of fat-ass KIA officers playing lazy golf together with
fat-belly Chinese businessmen and officials in KIA-owned golf courses on
the border. Warning to the KIA from the army is that your times are
being counted towards the apocalypse!
But
the billion dollar question is can Myanmar army overrun the KIA
stronghold like they did to the KNU strongholds at Manaplaw and Kawmoora
on the Thai border in the 1990.
Broadcasting
widely the long footage of army’s latest war game capturing the mock
KIA fortress at Laiza on the army’s public TV is the deviation from
their normally secret behaviour for the army. Especially for the
operation involving the Chinese-made heavy artillery guns such as 155,
120, and 105 mm howitzers and the latest 59D tanks supplied by China.
Myanmar Army Soldier |
All
the infantry troops participating in the war-game were also the
battle-hardened ten LIBs (Light Infantry Battalions) of the LID (Light
Infantry Division) 99 which was just withdrawn from the battlefields of
Kachin State for their R&R.
Some
of the weapons used in the war-game were Chinese-made short range
multi-tube rocket launchers and Myanmar army has been looking for an
opportunity to use these recently-acquired rockets in a real situation
like permanently built-up and crowded Laiza.
According
to many military experts familiar with Myanmar civil war KIA camps are
not as robust and defended as KNU camps were and once the real war
begins Laiza will not last for more than a few days.
And
casualty wise, the past operations against KNU had costed the army at
least 20,000 men but the estimated human cost against KIA should be much
less than that and Myanmar army already had four LIDs, namely 33, 66,
88, and 99, that is close to 35,000 men, in the vicinity of Laiza
already since early April.
The reason for fewer human casualty is the availability of heavy guns like 105 mm Howitzers supplied by China. During the KNU offensives in the 90s the biggest heavy weapon Myanmar army had was only 120 mm mortars. So this time instead of sending in the rifle men Myanmar will be sending the devastating artillery shells first and then the infantry supported by the tanks and attack helicopters and even the MIG jets. An overwhelming shock and awe operation against lightly-armed KIA?
By now, the Myanmar troops are only waiting for the final order coming from either President Thein Sein or C-in-C Min Aung Hlaing, nobody really knows from who in this confusing political climate.
Whether
the war-game was just a threat, as a pressure on the KIA to agree to a
peace settlement, or the real preparations for an actual operation to
take the Laiza soon is the fact only Vice-Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing
(or the chief of the PLA’s south-western army corps) can tell!
KIA child soldier |
The reason for fewer human casualty is the availability of heavy guns like 105 mm Howitzers supplied by China. During the KNU offensives in the 90s the biggest heavy weapon Myanmar army had was only 120 mm mortars. So this time instead of sending in the rifle men Myanmar will be sending the devastating artillery shells first and then the infantry supported by the tanks and attack helicopters and even the MIG jets. An overwhelming shock and awe operation against lightly-armed KIA?
By now, the Myanmar troops are only waiting for the final order coming from either President Thein Sein or C-in-C Min Aung Hlaing, nobody really knows from who in this confusing political climate.
No comments:
Post a Comment